Рывок Зеленского, тайны проекта Мосийчука, новая партия “еврооптимистов”

Почему Зеленский ушел в отрыв

Результаты соцопросов поражают чем дальше, тем больше. Еще месяц назад все были убеждены, что нынешние выборы – это противостояние Тимошенко с Порошенко, и вся интрига заключается в том, завершится это противостояние уже в первом туре провалом президента или они сразятся во втором. Но то, что произошло после Нового года, перевернуло всю кампанию с ног на голову.

Собственно, именно тот факт, что выборы в массовом сознании перестали быть противостоянием Юли и Пети, скорее всего, и является секретом нынешнего успеха Зеленского. Даже в опросах двухнедельной давности, когда лидер 95 квартала впервые возглавил рейтинг, половина тех, кто симпатизировал Зеленскому, не верил в его победу. Но именно это лидерство произвело эффект снежного кома.

В победу Зеленского поверили. Его фактически нереальные 8% роста – с 19% до 27% – за две недели как раз являются итогом того, что часть электората, разочарованная отсутствием реальной альтернативы паре Тимошенко/Порошенко, вдруг увидела эту альтернативу.

Кстати, этим, пожалуй, можно объяснить и снижение рейтинга Тимошенко: часть тех, кто выбирал ее месяц назад, делали этот выбор, потому что не видели другой альтернативы Порошенко. А теперь увидели.

Однако такая неустойчивость электоральных симпатий за полтора месяца до выборов делает даже сегодняшние рейтинги слишком ненадежными, чтобы на их основе делать выводы о результатах голосования.

Хотя нынешние сторонники Зеленского убеждены в том, что хотят пойти на выборы, чтобы “сломать систему”, их нельзя назвать твердым ядром – таким, которое есть у Тимошенко, Порошенко, Бойко, Гриценко и даже Ляшко. Зеленский – это эмоциональный выбор, и он может быть отменен всего одной эмоцией.

Какой? С точки зрения логики, пиарщикам Порошенко и Тимошенко сейчас нужно доказать, что Зеленский – такой же элемент системы, как и их заказчики. Не исключено, что именно в этом направлении они и будут работать.

Оппозиционный блок Ляшко

Тем временем хитом дня в интернете стало сообщение Центра противодействия коррупции, который обнаружил факт сотрудничества между Радикальной партией Ляшко и “ахметовским” крылом Оппозиционного блока. Факт состоит в том, что в свойствах электронного документа – пояснительной записки к проекту постановления по и. о. министра здравоохранения Супрун, подписанного радикалом Мосийчуком, – автором значится Долженков – нардеп из той части Оппоблока, которая контролируется Ахметовым и которая выдвинула кандидатом в президенты Вилкула.

Этот факт подтверждает одно: и “ахметовская” часть Оппоблока, и Радикальная партия Ляшко являются частью большой олигархической империи, в которой они просто играют разные роли в сценарии, цель которого – прибыль для хозяина.

Причем для самого Ахметова не имеет большого значения, к какому лагерю принадлежит тот или иной политик. По крайней мере, такой вывод можно сделать из курсировавшего в 2016-м слуха о том, что олигарх планировал все подконтрольные ему областные организации Оппоблока перевести в “Народный фронт”.

Правда, на сегодня для Ахметова главной ставкой является уже не “НФ”, а тот, чьи рождественские встречи транслировал телеканал “Украина”. То есть, Петр Порошенко. И это вынуждает работать на президента всех, кто входит в ахметовскую бизнес-империю. Даже если они этого не хотят.

Зачем “еврооптимистам” новая партия?

А пока топ-фигуры украинской политики переживают перипетии президентской кампании, фигуры поменьше уже озаботились парламентскими выборами. Вчера бывшие участники “Стоп цензуре!”, нынешние “европтимисты” во главе с Лещенко и Найемом создали движение “#Дійзнами”, которое они сами охарактеризовали как “гражданско-политическую инициативу”.

В принципе, такая характеристика сразу подразумевает, что “инициатива” однажды превратится в партию. Впрочем, “еврооптимисты” этого и не скрывают, сразу заявляя, что их цель – объединить единомышленников-либералов перед парламентскими выборами.

Цель логичная, но странная. В стране уже есть либеральная партия “ДемАльянс” – настолько либеральная и децентрализованная, что в ней невозможно принятие какого-то единого решения. В стране уже есть “Гражданская позиция” Анатолия Гриценко, вокруг которой тоже пытаются объединиться либералы. И в обоих этих командах в разной мере задействованы те же самые “еврооптимисты”.

Ни “Гражданская позиция”, ни – тем более – “ДемАльянс” не являются действенными организациями. Но они уже есть, и объединение правильно было бы начинать с реформирования одной из этих структур. А начинать его с создания еще одной инициативы – означает еще сильнее раздробить и без того скромный либеральный лагерь.

Впрочем, не исключено, что реальная цель инициативы иная – создать партию, с помощью которой перед выборами можно будет получить квоту, например, в списке “Гражданской позиции”. Так поступали и поступают многие политики – от – Луценко (с “Народной самообороной”) до сегодняшних “партий” Таруты, Яроша и некоторых других.

Почему в стране 70% готовы к компромиссам, а мира нет?

На фоне сенсационных новостей о президентских рейтингах незамеченной осталась другая социология, опубликованная Фондом Демократические инициативы имени Илька Кучерива совместно с Центром Разумкова. Согласно результатам их опроса, почти 70% граждан Украины готовы к компромиссам ради того, чтобы восстановить мир в стране, при этом 16% из них готовы на любые компромиссы. И только 17% поддерживают силовой вариант решения конфликта.

География этой социологии показательна: чем ближе к зоне боевых действий, тем больше тех, кто готов на любые компромиссы, и наоборот – чем дальше от войны, тем больше тех, кто хочет военной развязки.

Однако главное в том, что общий процент “воинствующих” оказался самым низким за все время конфликта на Донбассе. Что, вероятно, объясняется испугом, который пережила значительная часть страны в момент введения военного положения.

Вполне вероятно, что эта социология также является объяснением растущей популярности Зеленского, который (хоть и очень абстрактно) заявил о готовности идти на прямые переговоры с Россией и сепаратистами.

Однако в целом результаты опроса показывают ту сумятицу в мозгах, которая существует сейчас у украинцев. Лишь 17% выступают за военное разрешение конфликта, но в то же время суммарный процент тех, кто поддерживает выступающих против компромиссов кандидатов раза в три выше. Из наиболее рейтинговых политиков желание идти на компромисс – то есть на выполнение политической части Минских соглашений – демонстрирует лишь Юрий Бойко. У того же Зеленского по этому поводу позиция не очень понятная (он как бы за переговоры с Россией, но с другой стороны говорит о курсе в НАТО и вообще подчеркивает, что с Москвой он порвал окончательно). А Тимошенко и Порошенко против каких-либо компромиссов.

И именно в этом, пожалуй, одна из главных причин того, почему мир в стране не наступает уже пятый год.

Ради “Северного потока” Меркель хоронит Энергетическую хартию

Вчера Европарламент и Совет Евросоюза предварительно одобрили поправки газовой директивы по “Северному потоку-2”. Суть этих поправок состоит в том, что теперь каждая страна ЕС сама сможет решать, применять ли нормы Энергетической хартии по отношению к работающим в ней энергокомпаниям или нет.

Правда, пока это решение еще окончательно не утверждено Европарламентом и странами, входящими в Евросоюз. Но, поскольку руководство ЕС, Германия и Франция в этой истории находятся на одной стороне, то им, скорее всего, удастся продавить нужное решение.

Между тем, оно фактически означает отмену Энергетической хартии, поскольку отменяет одно из ее ключевых положений – что компания, продающая газ, не может заниматься его доставкой. Формально оно сохранится, но действовать не будет, поскольку Германия, собственно, первая и сделает это исключение – для “Газпрома”, строящего “Северный поток-2” и собирающегося качать через него собственный газ. А если Германия себе такое позволит, то точно так же поступят и все.

Готовность даже уничтожить Энергетическую хартию ради прибыли от “СП-2” – вот реальный ответ Меркель на все призывы Порошенко отказаться от нового газопровода. Это вовсе не означает, что фрау канцлер плохо относится к Украине – просто социально-экономические интересы жителей Германии ей ближе. Не все же считают, что дешевый газ только в “русском мире” и что высокие тарифы – это хорошо.

Страна

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